Aaron Nola might not be on the Team USA roster for the World Baseball Classic, but all of America is rooting for Nola to do his part tonight.
Nola, 32, is slated to start tonight for Team Italy as they face Team Mexico. Italy, Mexico, and the United States are all in the running for the top two spots in Pool B of action in the WBC. Only two can move on to the quarterfinals.
Now, you might be asking yourself a valuable question: how did Team USA get into this position? The answer lies in a tale that falls somewhere between the lines of hubris and idiocy.
The first three games of the WBC went as planned for Team USA as they swept Brazil, Great Britain, and Mexico. Up 3-0 and confident going into their final game of pool play, the United States felt confident.
Team Italy and Team Mexico, meanwhile, had both defeated Great Britain and Mexico as well. Mexico had a scheduled off day on Tuesday as the United States and Italy duked it out. If the United States won, they would have swept their pool and advanced without a sweat. If not, there was a layer of luck to be had.
Somewhere along the way, however, that message never got to Team USA manager Mark DeRosa. When discussing their approach to their matchup with Team Italy yesterday, DeRosa said on MLB Network, “It’s weird. We want to win this game even though our ticket’s punched to the quarterfinals.”
Their ticket, in fact, was not yet punched. Instead, Team USA benched some of their starters, including Bryce Harper, and proceeded to lose to Team Italy 8-6. Former Phillies pitcher Michael Lorenzen started for Italy.
After Italy shut down America in its own pastime, DeRosa walked back the comment claiming he “misspoke.” Meanwhile Team USA and Major League Baseball are quietly removing reference to those comments, but social media is forever.
Now, onto today.
Team Italy (3-0) is atop the leaderboard with Team USA (3-1) sitting right behind them. The first scenario is the simplest of the bunch: if Italy defeats Mexico, then Mexico is eliminated and Italy and the United States move on.
Should Mexico win, anything can happen. It all depends on the final score.
If Mexico wins, then all three teams will have identical 3-1 records, each owning a 1-1 record against the other two. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker criteria set by the World Baseball Classic. The second is more complicated: fewest runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.
| Team | Runs Allowed | Defensive Outs | RA/DO |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 11 | 54 | 0.2037 |
| Mexico | 5 | 24 | 0.2083 |
| Italy | 6 | 27 | 0.2222 |
Should tonight’s contest go into extra innings, the calculus gets more confusing, but assuming a nine-inning game, it is simple: if Mexico wins and scores four or fewer runs, Italy advances and the United States are eliminated. If Mexico wins and scores five or more runs, the United States advances.
If Mexico wins, they are in. It is just a matter of who advances with them. This is where Aaron Nola comes in.
Aaron Nola is scheduled to make his first WBC start for Team Italy tonight. Nola is coming off a career-worst and injury-plagued 2025 season in which he posted a 6.01 ERA. In one start so far in Spring Training, he allowed one run over two innings.
The Louisiana native with Italian roots, Nola’s position on the Italy squad puts him in a perfect position to help his native country. Should Nola keep Team Mexico at bay, Italy can run away with the top seed in Pool B and drag America alongside them.
Conversely, should Nola regress to his 2025 numbers, he can also help Team USA by ensuring that Team Mexico wins with at least five runs scored, self-eliminating Italy.
The stage is set. All of America will watch and root for Aaron Nola to do his part. Win or lose, Nola just might be the key in America’s advancement.
