Yesterday, draft pundit and former GM Charley Casserly went on air noting the Philadelphia Eagles as candidates to move up in the 2019 NFL Draft. His reasoning was solid: Howie Roseman likes to be aggressive during the draft process and won't settle for secondary options or vanity picks. The Eagles are in a fortuitous position with two second round picks in hand and few dire needs to address. Conclusively, Casserly suggests Philadelphia will move up to swipe Ole Miss tackle Greg Little off the board to fill the shoes of aging legend Jason Peters.
While I disagree with his final diagnosis, the question of whether or not Howie will stay put in the first round is an overlooked debate. Players that have been firmly on the Eagles pre-draft radar don't exactly fit seamlessly with the team's draft position. Without spoiling the coming paragraphs, names like Ed Oliver and Montez Sweat -- two top caliber prospects in terms of talent and scheme fit -- will be long gone by the time Philadelphia takes the podium. Other options -- Josh Jacobs, insert safety name -- would seem a tad rich to the taste of most talent scouts if plucked off the selection board at 25. In what superficially seems like a very deep draft class, having two second round selections holds more weight than in most years. That is not lost on Howie Roseman and I expect him to field some phone calls on draft day.
The question is: will the Eagles move up or move down? After last season, it would seem it is more within Howie's m.o. to drop into the early second round and reap the benefits of overeager re-builders. Nevertheless, having a roster with few holes and a front office in win now mode, the Eagles may feel they are one great player away from booking flights to Florida come February. On the other other hand, it is not a forlorn possibility that Philadelphia lets the draft pieces fall with a sifter in hand and collects whatever diamonds fall through the cracks of the top 20 selections. Let's look at all three possibilities:
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The Case for Staying Put
Or lack thereof . . .
As is with every year, draft scouts are never perfect and an overlooked talent or an imperfect prospect is bound to take a first-round tumble. Last season, arguably the draft's most NFL-ready quarterback fell to third overall. Many who thought CB Josh Jackson and RB Derrius Guice carried first-round tags watched them fall all the way to the second round. In 2017, LB Reuben Foster trickled down to the bottom of the first round due to off-field concerns after being considered one of college's most dominant defensive players. Thought of as perhaps the top corner in the draft, the Ealges took a chance on injured Washington prospect Sidney Jones in the second round. The list goes on.
Biding one's time until the 25th pick hoping that a top tier prospect stays overlooked can be an arduous process. However, Philadelphia is definitely sitting in a favorable position to stop the tumble of a tantalizing talent. At least one defensive lineman with top 20 talent will be available; my guess is Dexter Lawrence, Jerry Tillery or the injured Jeffery Simmons are all credible options. The team may even get lucky and find Christian Wilkins sitting on his hands -- this would be ideal. Who knows, maybe Montez Sweat's health concerns could cause cold feet. Outside of Wilkins who has spearheaded my 2019 Draft Dream Board, or Sweat, each option comes with their pitfalls. Lawrence is a jagged fit due to his shortcomings rushing the passer. Tillery is inconsistent which has pushed his valuation all over the map, despite a dominant 2018 season. Finally, Simmonds may not even be available for the 2019-2020 season.
The Eagles may also have their pick of the top safeties in the draft. Nassir Adderly, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Johnathan Abram should all still be waiting for phone calls by the time the screens turn midnight green. Whether or not any of them are worthy of a top 25 selection remains to be seen. It is reasonable to believe that any of the three may still be available in the mid second round. If not, there are ample options at the position that will be.
Outside of LSU's Devin White, there's not a clear prediction for when linebackers will fly off the board either. While Devin Bush might be just outside of their reach, there's not a team with clear need for a first-round linebacker from picks 19-25, save for the Steelers and Raiders -- both teams have bigger holes. The Eagles have tended to veer away from spending first round selections on linebackers and are likely to have unfavorable valuations of second tier prospects. Unless Bush does happen to fall, I do not imagine any other backer finding themselves on the Eagles' first-round tracker. Perhaps the front office has higher opinions of Mack Wilson or Blake Cashman than most, but consider it doubtful.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Eagles could no doubt add Josh Jacobs to their roster without much outside competition. Philadelphia has been the only team linked to his name in the first round if you're to believe the mock drafts. However NFL correspondent Lance Zurlein recently stated that his sources had informed him that Jacobs is likely to fall to the early second round. Whether due to his slow 40-time or lack of college production, I tend to agree with Zurlein's informants. Especially after acquiring Jordan Howard from the Bears and being linked to Brown's RB Duke Johnson, it seems as if the Eagles have removed themselves from the first-round running back race.
Philadelphia could also look to bolster their aging offensive line. There are a couple of problems with this scenario. The most obvious is that no offensive tackle prospect truly has a late first round tag. Perhaps versatile Cody Ford or tackle Greg Little will fall, but they are bound to be swept up by the offensive line-starved Houston Texans. The Panthers, Ravens, and Vikings could also use the help and the Texans will have to settle for whatever scraps are left. Later options such as Dalton Risner, Kaleb McGary or Chris Lindstrom feel much more like second-round selections than first-round fall candidates. The second is contingent on the opinion that outside of Andre Dillard, there are no true left tackles in the top end of the draft. This may push protection-needy teams towards forcing square blocks with rounded edges into round holes earlier in the first round. In this case, Howie may be completely out of luck when diving into the offensive line barrel for talent in the late first round. This brings us to...
The Case for Moving Down
This section may be redundant as I could probably copy and paste the information from the last section and make a pretty compelling argument for the Eagles dropping into the second round. It doesn't take a deep dive down memory lane to establish Howie Roseman's penchant for trading back in the draft. If the Eagles haven't moved up by the time their number is called and select names are missing from the big board, expect them to move down. My magic draft ball posits the names among Howie's wish list look something like:
Montez Sweat, Andre Dillard, Christian Wilkins, Brian Burns, Cody Ford, Greg Little, Devin Bush, a top three corner.
Some of those names are much more plausible to stick around than others. It's likely that none of those players even sniff the lower quarter of the first round.
Instead, the Birds could trade down. Teams looking for a top corner could still be in luck if the Eagles are content with their youth movement in the secondary. Any team could also start the run on safeties or look to scoop up the best remaining defensive line talent with the 25th selection. It's also possible a team in need of a quarterback could see the late first round as the perfect window to steal away Daniel Jones, Will Grier or Combine winner Tyree Jackson.
The Jaguars, Dolphins and Redskins are all potential signal caller seekers that may not want to wait until next year's more promising quarterback class. The Cardinals remain a wild card in the QB arms race. Even surprise options like the Bengals or the Buccaneers could look to secure a new face of the franchise to learn behind their semi-entrenched starters. Though the Giants will have two cracks at taking their man for the future, they may forgo those opportunities to build in other areas. Any of those teams could provide the Eagles with an intriguing bevy of selections for second day value hunting.
The latest second round selection of those teams mentioned is owned by the Miami Dolphins, who own the 16th pick in the second round (48th overall). The earliest being held by the Arizona Cardinals at pick number 33, Philadelphia could find themselves in prime position to steal a first round talent in the second round. Who, you ask?
My first thought jumps to any one of the top safeties in the draft. Adderly and Gardner-Johnson are the best fits to overtake the Malcolm Jenkins role. Remaining in the secondary, the Eagles have also been linked to CB Amani Oruwariye, who some think could be the best corner in the draft after the dust settles. Other options at corner include Justin Layne, Rock Ya-Sin and Julian Love. Any of these options would be fair value in the early second round. It is my belief the Birds are more likely to seek a safety than a corner, noting their stockpile of young talent at the latter position.
Staying on the defensive side of the football, the options for front seven talent will be boundless at the top of the second round. Linebackers such as Vosean Joseph, Mack Wilson, Ben Burr-Kirven and Terrill Hanks all have second to third round tags. Ranking the second tier of backers depends on highly opinionated evaluations and any number of these prospects should fit right in the wheelhouse for Philly should they trade back.
Along the defensive line, most of the options available to the Eagles at 25 should stick around until the top of the second round. The team could likely trade back and still land Tillery or Simmons. Adding to that list, Dre'Mont Jones and Charles Omenihu figure to be fantastic second day options on the interior. Howie could also look to snatch up any of the remaining edge rusher talent. Look for possible targets like Jachai Polite, Chase Winovich, Jaylon Ferguson and Oshane Ximines to still be on the table.
Now, on offense, the options become even more wide-ranging. There will be a ton of talent on the interior offensive line ripe for the picking. Chris Lindstrom headlines that category. Garret Bradbury, Erik McCoy and Dru Samia will also be on the radar of teams still looking to solidify their front lines. Swing tackles and versatile linemen like Kaleb McGary, Dalton Risner, Connor McGovern and Michael Deiter could also make great value selections for any team who isn't in need of an immediate starter. On the tackle front, the Eagles prized hog is small school product Tytus Howard. However, another name to keep an eye on is West Virginia tackle Yodny Cajuste. Howie and co. seem to do their homework on WVU prospects and Cajuste has the makings of a rangy left tackle if given time to grow.
All the running backs should still be in play -- yes even Josh Jacobs. Although look for the Raiders, Buccaneers and Bills to consider the Alabama product should be slide past the first round. In my opinion, the remaining bell cows will carry better value in the late second to third round, but if you like a guy, you've got to secure him. Philadelphia has been rumored to have their feelers out for Penn State RB Miles Sanders, who has done well to cement himself as a second round talent. Without a third round selection, the Eagles may need to secure a back in the second round if they feel their rotation is incomplete. It would make sense for the Birds to add a third-down back instead of a power runner. Options include Darrell Henderson, Justice Hill, Myles Gaskin and Bryce Love. All of these targets could probably wait until later rounds.
The overlooked possibility in this scenario may be a receiver. There will be ample options in the second round. Of the class, it may only be Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf hearing his name called in the first round. Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown make a lot of sense in terms of value and fit. This road may also make Nelson Agholor expendable and allow the Eagles to recoup a third to mid round selection. After comparing the Amari Cooper and Golden Tate trades to the transfer of Antonio Brown, I have no idea what a receiver is worth any more. Marquise Brown and Kelvin Harmon are also intriguing options that should be available in the early second round.
Overall, there is reasonable hope that most of the options available to the Eagles at pick number 25 should still be available -- in some capacity -- should Howie make the call to move down. The only avenue they rob themselves of is stealing away one of the draft's top 20 talents. However, that possibility will become obvious by the time the Birds are on the clock, which would leave them free to field calls. Unless Christian Wilkins is still hanging around, or Montez Sweat's fall becomes drastic it makes more sense for the Eagles to trade back into the second round than stay put.
The Case for Moving Up
The plausible scenarios in which Philly moves up to pick a top name are a bit more concrete than those involving a trade down. Charley Casserly predicted a jump up the draft board to secure OT Greg Little. My version of this proposal involves bolstering the other side of the trenches. Posing the case for a jump up in the draft, I foresee two primary targets: Ed Oliver and (stop me if you've heard this name before) Montez Sweat. Both candidates carry a significant red flag with them entering the draft. Sweat was unfortunately diagnosed with a heart condition following his physical at the NFL Combine. Oliver has questions surrounding his size and scheme fit despite being one of the most dominant defenders in all of college football last season. A move up would cement the premise that Philadelphia sees their window to win a championship right now, and are less concerned with three and beyond years from now. Let's start with the trade up for Oliver plan.
If Oliver is to fall, I do not see him getting past the Falcons at selection number 14. Fortunately for the Eagles, there is a glowing light in the shape of a trade partner positioned just before Atlanta. The Miami Dolphins are in clear rebuild mode and could look to bolster their haul of picks if they decide to neglect their need for a signal caller this year. Moving up to the 13th position would likely require both of the Eagles second round selections, which would leave them without a pick until the fourth round; less than ideal. Instead, Howie could look to package some young players (likely Rasul Douglas and/or Nelson Agholor) to lessen the burden on the draft at hand. If Philadelphia has their heart set on Oliver, they could make an even more aggressive move and ring the Bengals line to try to jump in front of the Packers, who may also have the Houston DT's number. It's unclear what the future holds in Cincinnati, but with multiple holes to fill more draft picks would certainly help their cause.
The scenario in which the Eagles trade up for Sweat is a bit harder to figure due to the smoke veiling his health. His camp is likely to downplay the effect it will have on his play and NFL teams will keep their cards close to their chests until draft day. The Lions seem to be the consensus for when Sweat will come off the board, but if they are antsy about his condition Sweat may slide all the way down to the mid to late teens. Green Bay will absolutely give him a look, but the team paid big money to strengthen their edge rush talent and could use some interior defensive line help and offensive weapons. Again I see the Dolphins being the most likely trade partners. The Redskins have had fantastic luck snapping up tumbling defensive talent and Howie knows how much of a nightmare it could be to face the Mississippi State DE twice a year. The Eagles have not been tentative taking talent with attached health concerns in the past and even though this situation seems somehow different, the team is enamored with Sweat.
There is also the possibility of a smaller vault up the draft board. The Titans are a very real risk of stealing Christian Wilkins. I do not see the Giants doing any favors for the Eagles in the first round. However, Howie has had great rapport with the Vikings in years past and may be able to swing a trade for limited capital to move ahead of Tennessee. The truth is, the Clemson product may be long gone by then after impressing at both the Combine and at his Pro Day. At the same time, some draft experts have Wilkins taken in the late first round. I don't see Philly calling Miami to move up for a player they might be lucky enough to get with their original pick. Nevertheless, a small move up to secure a great talent and fit makes a lot of sense with the ammo of an extra second round pick in hand.
