MLS Shield watch: Philly is 1 win away can they claim it before Decision Day?

It all comes down to this: The Philadelphia Union is one win away from ending one of the best MLS Supporters' Shield races ever and winning the 2025 Supporters' Shield. Over the past three months, the top teams in the league have shown that they care about being the best. The top 12 teams were competitive and had a real shot at hoisting the Shield in 2025.

The last two weeks have shown that Philly has been just a bit better than the rest. They have won twice, while other teams that had legitimate chances to jump the Union dropped points. Now, the race will be determined by Philadelphia vs. New York City at Subaru Park Saturday night. Will we see Philly lift the Shield in front of their fans with one game still to play?

MLS Supporters’ Shield watch after matchday 37

As we followed this race to the Shield, we looked at the top five contenders fighting for the trophy and rounded out the rest of the contending field. With only three weeks until MLS Decision Day, we see that the field is more determined by the maximum points they can accrue rather than their place in the standings. So for this article, we will look at the six teams still alive in the Supporters' Shield race and the seven teams that are mathematically eliminated as of last matchweek.

Philadelphia Union – 63 points from 32 games played – Max. points: 69

The Philadelphia Union had the best week possible in matchweek 37. They won their match at DC United 6-0, while Cincinnati, San Diego, Vancouver, and Miami all dropped points. Their win also meant that New York City, Minnesota, Charlotte, and Nashville were all officially eliminated from contention to host this trophy. After an amazing weekend, Miami lost to Chicago this past Tuesday, which allows Philly to win the Shield Saturday night with a win vs. NYCFC.

The 2025 season has been one in which Philly has been just more consistently good than the field. With one game to go, they now have a huge opportunity to win the MLS Supporters' Shield. Can they beat a red-hot NYCFC side that has won six of its last eight matches? Tune in at 7:30 p.m. on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+ to find out.

Next MLS Match: vs NYCFC | Saturday, October 4 | 7:30 pm EST

Vancouver Whitecaps – 57 points from 31 games played – Max. points: 66

Should Philly falter in their second-to-last game, that would leave the door open for Vancouver to get back into the thick of things. While they drew 2-2 at Seattle last week, they still have a game in hand on the rest of MLS. For Vancouver to win the Shield, they will need to win their last three games and hope Philly doesn't get a win in their last two. Those are long odds, but this is MLS.

Vancouver has had one hell of a 2025 season. They made the Concacaf Champions Cup Final, falling short to the Mexican club Cruz Azul, and still stayed relevant in the Shield race to the end of the season. That is very unusual, as going far in the Concacaf competition is usually coupled with poor MLS performances. Vancouver Whitecaps will be back in the Champions Cup next year as they just beat Vancouver FC in the Canadian Championship. Will they also get a dream end to their MLS season and claim the Shield?

Next MLS Match: vs San Jose Earthquakes | Sunday, October 5 | 6 pm EST

Inter Miami – 56 points from 31 games played – Max. points: 65

Miami had an inside track to the Supporters' Shield in 2025. Coming into last weekend, Messi and Friends CF had won four of their last six matches and had two games in hand on the teams in the Shield race. They then drew at Toronto and lost at home to Chicago to drop to sixth in the Shield standings. For them to win the Shiell, they'll now have to win their three remaining games, and hope that Philly doesn't win any of their last two, and that Vancouver has a slip-up as well.

It looks like there won't be a repeat Shield winner in 2025, but Miami is still looking to be a force in the playoffs. They will have to play their games in hand over the international break, and if they don't get a win at home before then against New England, I'd expect them to rest a few of their aging stars for a Championship run.

Next MLS Match: vs New England Revolution | Saturday, October 4 | 7:30 pm EST

FC Cincinnati – 59 points from 32 games played – Max. points: 65

FC Cincinnati were the preseason favorites to hoist the Supporters' Shield at the end of the 2025 MLS season. However, throughout their season, it was clear that they didn't have the capacity to get the job done. When their attack was firing, their defense was leaky, and vice versa. Now, with two games to go, they'd need to win out and hope and pray that Philly loses out, that Vancouver and Miami lose two of their last three, and that they also drop points in their game in hand.

Cincinnati is still scary good, and it was a 90+6 minute equalizing goal last weekend versus Orlando away from only being two points off of Philadelphia. They will still be a force to be reckoned with in the 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs. Cincy is suited for knockout-style soccer with an attack that can score at will and a defense that can be very stout on its best day. Let's see how things shake out for the second-place team in the East.

Next MLS Match: @ New York Red Bulls | Saturday, October 4 | 7:30 pm EST

LAFC – 53 points from 30 games played – Max. points: 65

A team we never really had the time to dive into in this Shield watch series is LAFC. They've always been in and around the top-10 for the majority of this Shield race, and even now sit in 10th place. The only reason they are still mathematically able to win the Shield is because of their games in hand, as they still have four to play. Should LA win out, and Philly and Cincinnati lose out, and Miami and Vancouver lose two of their last three and fail to win one of their three games, LAFC could actually win the Shield. Win Son and Bouanga could definitely take care of their own games.

If the best scoring duo in MLS were together for a whole season, LAFC would definitely be in the thick of the Shield race. Son entered in the summer and has given LAFC the spark they need to go on an MLS Cup run, but it looks like their Shield dreams are over in 2025. We'll see if they can keep scoring at will this weekend vs Atlanta, but it will likely only help their chances at getting a better seed in the West.

Next MLS Match: vs Atlanta United | Sunday, October 5 | 9 pm EST

San Diego FC – 57 points from 32 games played – Max. points: 63

Everyone should applaud San Diego FC for their first MLS season. Tyler Heaps has put together an incredible team with a few star DPs, savvy MLS vets, and young and hungry players. Mikey Varas has gotten the most out of them on the pitch, and they sit atop the West with two games to play. Their Shield hopes, however, are bleak thanks to recent results. San Diego would need to win out, for Philly and Cincy to lose out, for Vancouver and Miami to lose two and draw one, and for LAFC to take only nine points from their last four games to have a chance to win.

While the expansion side was fully in the thick of the Supporters' Shield race into the final month of the season, they now have a bigger goal ahead. San Diego is tied on points for the top of the West with Vancouver, two points up on Minnesota, and four points up on LAFC. Who will win the West? We'll have to wait until the last three weeks of the season to find out, but San Diego can if they just take care of business starting this weekend at Houston.

Next MLS Match: @ Houston | Saturday, October 4 | 8:30 pm EST

The teams eliminated from the Shield race

With four weeks to go, there were still 12 teams competing for MLS's Supporters' Shield. Now, six are still alive, and by Saturday night, Philadelphia could be hoisting it in front of a packed Subaru Park. Nevertheless, this has been a dramatic and extremely bonkers race that has been the most competitive one MLS has seen in recent memory. Here's a look at the teams that are now officially out of the running for the Supporters' Shield.

NYCFC – 56 points from 32 games played – Max. points: 65

Minnesota United – 55 points from 32 games played – Max. points: 61

Orlando City – 52 points from 31 games played – Max. points: 61

Charlotte FC – 53 points from 32 games played – Max. points: 59

Nashville SC – 53 points from 32 games played – Max. points: 59

Chicago Fire – 51 points from 32 games played – Max. points: 57

Columbus Crew SC – 50 points from 32 games played – Max. points: 56

Looking at this list, you see playoff teams in 2025. Any one of them could go on a run to MLS Cup, but none were consistent enough over a 34-game season to win the coveted Supporters' Shield. The Shield is the hardest trophy to win in MLS. To do so, a team needs to be steadfast in its identity and get results and points even when they aren't at its best. Are we about to see the Philadelphia Union do just that on Saturday night and claim their second Shield in the last five years?

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