Three times in the last thirty years, the Philadelphia Phillies have met the Atlanta Braves in the playoffs. In 1993, the "Worst to First" Phillies upset the 104-win Braves to win the National League Pennant. In 2022 and 2023, the Phillies ambushed 101- and 104-win teams to advance to the NLCS.
Now three years on, the Phillies must march into Atlanta for a best-of-three Wild Card series. Can the Phillies continue to play spoiler to the Braves?
This year's iteration of the Braves isn't on the level of the teams the Phillies have played in the past, but they certainly cannot be overlooked. They won 94 games and the NL East crown, taking it from the reigning Phillies.
While this team doesn't have Greg Maddox, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz or even Spencer Strider, their rotation could match up well against the Phillies. A resplendent Chris Sale is expected to start Game 1 for the Braves. The 37-year-old Sale had a minuscule 2.16 ERA in 2026. Since joining the Braves in 2024, the lefty has accumulated 15.6 bWAR over 466 IP and beat out Zack Wheeler to win the 2024 NL Cy Young Award.
The Phillies faced Sale twice in September. They scored two runs in one game and three in the other. They failed to win either game.
In Game 2, the Braves would most likely throw Grant Holmes. The third-year righty had a respectable season, recording a 121 ERA+. While that metric puts him at 21% better than the average pitcher, his peripherals are less than impressive.
He had a 1.305 WHIP, only struck out 6.8 K/9, and had a 4.76 FIP. Holmes pitched a total of ten innings against the Phillies in Atlanta this season. Over those two starts, he's allowed five runs and 13 hits.
Veteran Tyler Mahle would likely start Game 3 if needed. The Braves acquired him at the trade deadline from the San Francisco Giants. In nine starts with Atlanta, he's been excellent. A 1.99 ERA and a .957 WHIP made things easy for the Braves down the stretch. He stymied the Phillies offense in two starts in September.
The Braves' bullpen might be stronger than their rotation. Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, Dylan Dodd, Robert Suarez and Brent Suter all had ERAs below three in the regular season.
Atlanta's offense was fueled by three main suspects: Drake Baldwin (124 OPS+), Matt Olson (123 OPS+), Michael Harris II (121 OPS+), and Ronald Acuña Jr. (118 OPS+). Acuña, the 2023 NL MVP, had a down year, hitting just .255.
In baseball, predictions are like the weather. You can make your most educated guess and still be completely wrong. Look at the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox.
The Phillies don't have as much thump in the lineup as they did in 2022 and 2023. Only Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber hit over 20 home runs in their lineup. The pair were also the only two with an OPS+ over 100. The lineup will also be without 2B Luis Arraez, who was left off the playoff roster with an ankle sprain.
There were signs that the Phillies lineup could be turning things around on the last day of the season as they scored seven runs against the Rays. In order to make a playoff run, the Phillies will need Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh and JT Realmuto to shake off their disappointing seasons.
There's one saving grace for the Phillies: their rotation. Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo all had exceptional seasons. The issue for the Phillies is that they dragged their feet in clinching a playoff spot and weren't able to set their rotation.
So the pitching plan is currently in chaos. Newly healthy Jesus Luzardo will open Game 1. He's only thrown four pitches to hitters since his shutout against the Braves. Andrew Painter will be in the bullpen to pitch behind him. There is no announced plan for games two and three. Sánchez and Wheeler would both have to pitch on short rest. Aaron Nola could be an option. He has started two games against Atlanta in the playoffs, allowing two runs over 11.2 IP and striking out 15.
MORE: The Phillies made the postseason, so let yourself enjoy it
What time is Phillies vs Braves Game 1 scheduled to start? Game 1 takes place on Tuesday Septempber 29 at 2PM ET from Truist Park.
Will Jesús Luzardo pitch in Game 1? Yes, Luzardo is back from injury and will face off against Chris Sale in the series opener.
Where can I watch Phillies vs Braves? The game will be shown on NBC, Peacock and DIRECTV.
