Why Eagles WR Nelson Agholor may be destined for a career-year in 2019

The 2019 NFL offseason has been one of the busiest in Philadelphia in recent memory. While Howie Roseman's Eagles are always busy in the spring, this year, in particular, it seems as if talent has been added to the roster in droves. As such, it can be difficult to give deserved attention to the talent already on the roster. Even after finding his mojo, Nelson Agholor has been one of those names that are consistently undersold. Through swirling trade rumors and new additions to the receiving corps, Nelly's focus remains locked on the season ahead. "I didn't really worry about it. At the end of the day, I love this place. We have unfinished business . . . I want to be an Eagle and I'm here . . . I'm ready to play football."Nelson Agholor to Dave Zangaro | NBC Sports Whether the rumors were true or not, the Eagles will be happy they kept Agholor in midnight green. Despite his lofty $9.34M contract, what Nelson brings to the Eagles offense is priceless. Plus, with it being a contract year for him, he's got everything to prove in 2019. After shedding his bust label in 2017 and exploding for eight touchdowns and 768 yards, Agholor saw a slight drop in stats last season. 2018 was a confusing year for the Eagles' offense and it seemed as if nobody outside of Zach Ertz fully realized their potential. Yet, even with that minor dip, Nelson still managed 736 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was without a true deep threat on the team -- with Mike Wallace and Mack Hollins watching from the sidelines -- and the mid-season addition of Golden Tate. The passing game was also severely impaired by the team's anemic rushing attack. The Eagles haven't made any big changes to their offensive coaching staff in 2018 (although they did make a switch at the receivers coaching position). They added DeSean Jackson, who will absorb targets in a similar vein to Tate. The team also spent a draft pick on WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and will look to further incorporate last year's top selection Dallas Goedert into the offense. So, what's to say the former first-round pick will fare any better in 2019? The Numbers The chart below shows exactly how much the 2018 remodeling affected Agholor. Despite seeing more of the field, he was lined up outside of his natural slot position much more often and watched his target share fall. This was especially true in the red zone, where the entire Eagles offense stagnated for most of the season. The quality of his targets was also victim to a slight decline. It could be argued that the numbers below account for the entirety of Agholor's drop in production.

	Snap Share (Slot)	Tgt Share	Tgts/Snap	RZ Tgt	Ctchble Tgt
2017	75.0% (58.2%)	17.1%	12.2%	23.1%	80.0%
2018	93.5% (47.2%)	16.4%	10.4%	14.3%	77.3%

The lack of targets inside the 20 is particularly unsettling. The long, athletic receiver is a mismatch in many situations, especially with the ball in his hands. Well-designed redzone touches resulted in some easy touchdowns for Nelson in 2017:

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/934857636796776448

It wasn't until the last game of the season, against a beleaguered Washington Redskins, that the coaching staff came back to these sort of plays. Lo and behold, they went without a hitch.

https://twitter.com/Eagles/status/1079518025924018176

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1079525476853374977

In spite of outward appearances, in many ways, Nelson was even more efficient last season. He limited his drops and made the most of targets closer to the line of scrimmage. There is no question that his skill set became less of a focal point for the offense last season, especially during the Golden Tate experiment (when Agholor's targets dropped from 7.6 to 4.5 per game).

	Air Yds/Tgt	Avg Tgt Dist.	YAC/Tgt	Ctch Rate	Drop Rate
2017	4.9	10.2	3.2	65.3%	7.4%
2018	4.1	10.3	3.5	66.0%	3.1%

Still, to the eye test, Agholor wasn't as explosive last season. There weren't as many long touchdowns or juke moves on display. He wasn't found behind the defense making defenders look silly quite so often.

https://twitter.com/NFLonFOX/status/917105275986784256

Philadelphia's offense figures to be relatively unchanged heading into the new season. Plus, the reality is, the Eagles will have just as many mouths to feed in 2019. Without establishing himself early, Nelson could easily fall by the wayside in a very potent offense. Still, there are indications that Agholor could be on an upward trend heading into September. Nevertheless, if the coaches are to squeeze the last ounces out of Agholor's contract year, some changes to how he's being utilized will have to happen. Continued on the page below. The Charts Numbers are important to superficially understand the trend in production, but to really get below the surface we'll have to understand exactly what was different in 2018. Below are route charts from Nelson's best game in both 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Your first question is likely: so what? With more targets and more receptions undoubtedly comes more production. While it's hard to argue that Agholor was a more exercised piece to the puzzle in 2017, the difference in how he was deployed is telling. The immediate disparity is movement. Only one of Nelson's routes in the 2018 game crosses the center of the field. That means he cannot build up a head of steam which limits his after-the-catch threat, and makes his stop routes all that more predictable. Compare that to the chart above in which his routes take him all over the field. One explanation is congestion. The running back rotation was without a back who could truly stretch a defense laterally. Moreover, with the heavy (over?) use of Zach Ertz, defenses were keying on routes between the hashes. Thus, opponents were able to overcrowd the middle of the field, making crossing routes almost impossible. It important that the coaching staff finds a solution to this problem in 2019. Getting Nelson moving across the field -- legs pumping, feet moving -- can result in plays like the one below:

https://twitter.com/bliv94/status/962496964574277632

It should be noted that the quarterback in the first game chart was Carson Wentz, and Nick Foles in the second. Generally, the ball is out quicker with Foles, which could account for some difference in short completions. However, I would argue the bigger difference is the complete lack of respect opposing defenses had for the Eagles' deep passing game last season. Which brings us to the other major difference, which is the deep ball. Evidenced by the long touchdowns in both games (and the video below), either quarterback has the arm strength to get Agholor the ball downfield. The ability to stretch a defense is an underrated aspect of his game, but in 2018, he was the only receiver on the team who had the ability to do so. It's very difficult to beat cover one defenses with seams from the slot, especially without an outside counterpart. This scheme opponents were all too happy to play against an Eagles team that struggled to run the football and loved to target their tight ends. The run game should be in better sorts this season. Plus, you have to like the upside of any receiver that can beat Tyrann Mathieu in one-on-one coverage.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1076934155001163776

If Nelson Agholor is to fully realize his potential this season, the offense will have to take advantage of crossing routes and deep shots. Agholor's speed crossing the field and ability after the catch is something he has in his arsenal over Goedert and Ertz. Also, while he may not be able to outrun DeSean Jackson, having more than one deep threat to stretch the field will be crucial for the offense. Ertz, Goedert and Alshon Jeffery will all benefit greatly. Speaking of DeSean: Continued on the page below. The New Recruit As you can probably guess from the previous comments about the deep passing game, one of the biggest boons to Nelly's outlook for 2019 is the addition of DeSean Jackson. He knows it too. In an interview concerning Jackson returning to Philly, Agholor couldn't stop beaming. "His energy, man. That's my homie. His energy always allow me to be, like, turnt up and wired up. I love that . . . Just personality wise they both always make me be my comfortable, natural self."Nelson Agholor to Zach Rosenblatt | NJ.com

https://twitter.com/legsanity/status/1069758757947826177

A comfortable Nelson is good news for the Eagles. One of the biggest changes from year two to year three for the young man was confidence. If his going to take another step up in 2019, confidence will play a huge role yet again. It will be more than just a rise in mood that DeSean brings to the table. The speedster has the innate ability to raise the play-making ability of the players around him as well. "In my career, that's what I do best. Make plays and amp my teammates up, for them to follow suit, make big plays and keep that aroma going . . . I have a lot to offer these young dudes, so that's what I'm here for."DeSean Jackson to Zach Rosenblatt | NJ.com The big concern heading into the season is that the addition of another all-star receiver will subtract from Nelly's ceiling. In reality, Jackson has manufactured some fantastic seasons for his slot compatriots. He's a constant threat to get behind the defense, which creates a ton of room underneath for slot receivers and tight ends. Even before the snap of the football, his impact is felt. According to Playerprofiler, DeSean is given an average of 4.98 yards of cushion, fourth-most in the league. Similar to a big-swinging designated hitter, just by stepping onto the field, he makes the whole defense take a big step back. That will open up a ton of grass for Nelson's crossing routes. Most importantly, he does all this without taking a lion's share of targets. In Tampa Bay and in Washington, DeSean was an equal part of potent pass-catching groups. In both cities, the resident slot receiver had their best seasons alongside Jackson.

WAS 2016	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Jackson	100	56	1005	4
Garcon	114	79	1041	3
Reed	89	66	686	6
Crowder	99	67	847	7
Total	402	268	3679	20

TB 2018	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Jackson	74	41	774	4
Evans	138	86	1524	8
Howard/Brate	97	64	854	11
Humphries	105	76	816	5
Total	414	267	3968	28

If these numbers look at all familiar, it's because the Eagles offense was at it's best when it was able to spread the ball around. In their Super Bowl-winning season, having Torrey Smith to stretch the defense did wonders for the other receivers on the team. Jackson is without a doubt a more potent deep threat than Smith at this point in their respective careers.

PHI 2017	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Smith	67	36	430	2
Jeffery	120	57	789	9
Ertz	110	74	824	8
Agholor	95	62	768	8
Total	392	229	2811	27

If nothing else, Jackson's presence shouldn't amount to a loss in production for Nelson. At best, he could see a rise in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. I've included the totals to show that there really are enough targets to go around. For reference, the Eagles threw the ball 599 times last season, and 564 times in 2017. On top of all of this, having another speedster on the field means that Agholor won't be the team's primary deep threat. Safeties won't shade to his side of the field as often and the team will see more two-deep coverage. Also, unlike Golden Tate, DeSean allows Agholor the freedom to remain in the slot. It's hard enough to get into a rhythm as the third or fourth option on an offense. It's even harder when you're constantly switching positions. All in all, there are many reasons to believe Nelson Agholor will be back to form in 2019. The opportunities will be there for him to up his value and at the very least, he will bring the same spark to the offense that he has for the last two years. With DeSean Jackson allowing him extra room to operate and a return to what's made him so special: 2019 could easily be a career year for Nelly.